This paper examines empirically the effect of unfunded pension obligations on corporate share prices and discusses the implications of these estimates for national saving, the decline of the stock market in recent years, and the rationality of corporate financial behavior. The analysis uses the information on inflation-adjusted income and assets that large firms were required to provide for 1976 and subsequent years. The evidence for a sample of nearly 200 manufacturing firms is consistent with the conclusion that share prices fully reflect the value of unfunded pension obligations. Since the conventional accounting measure of the unfunded pension liability has a number of problems (which we examine in the paper), it would be more accurate to say that the data are consistent with the conclusion that shareholders accept the conventional measure as the best available information and reduce share prices by a corresponding amount. The most important implication of the share price response is that the existence of unfunded private pension liabilities does not necessarily entail a reduction in total private saving. Because the pension liability reduces the equity value of the firm, shareholders are given notice of its existence and an incentive to save more themselves. For this reason, unfunded private pensions differ fundamentally from the unfunded Social Security pension and the other unfunded federal government civilian and military pensions.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
0509.
Length: Date of creation: Dec 1981 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0509
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Martin Feldstein, 1982.
"Private Pensions as Corporate Debt,"
NBER Chapters,
in: The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity in Financing U.S. Capital Formation, pages 75-90
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
Jeremy I. Bulow & Myron S. Scholes & Peter Menell, 1982.
"Economic Implications of ERISA,"
NBER Working Papers
0927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Jeremy I. Bulow & Myron S. Scholes & Peter Menell, 1983.
"Economic Implications of ERISA,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 37-56
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1985.
"Pension Funding and Saving,"
NBER Working Papers
1622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1988.
"Pension Funding and Saving,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 85-114
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]