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Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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  • John F. Boschen
  • Herschel I. Grossman

Abstract

This paper introduces contemporaneously available monetary data into an "equilibrium" model that combines rational expectations, market clearing, and incomplete information about monetary disturbances. Data on the current money stock involve a preliminary estimate that is subject to a subsequent process of gradual revision. The model implies the testable hypothesis that aggregate output and employment are uncorrelated with the contemporaneous measure of money growth implied by the difference between the currently available estimates of current and past money shocks. Rejection of this hypothesis provides strong evidence again at the equilibriums approach to modeling the relation between monetary disturbances and macro-economic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1980. "Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    2. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
    3. Azariadis, Costas, 1978. "Escalator clauses and the allocation of cyclical risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 119-155, June.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
    5. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
    2. Carl E. Walsh, 1982. "The effects of alternative operating procedures on economic and financial relationships," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 133-180.

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