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Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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  • John F. Boschen
  • Herschel I. Grossman

Abstract

This paper introduces contemporaneously available monetary data into an "equilibrium" model that combines rational expectations, market clearing, and incomplete information about monetary disturbances. Data on the current money stock involve a preliminary estimate that is subject to a subsequent process of gradual revision. The model implies the testable hypothesis that aggregate output and employment are uncorrelated with the contemporaneous measure of money growth implied by the difference between the currently available estimates of current and past money shocks. Rejection of this hypothesis provides strong evidence again at the equilibriums approach to modeling the relation between monetary disturbances and macro-economic fluctuations.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0498.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0498.

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Date of creation: Jul 1980
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Publication status: published as Boschen, John F. and Herschel I. Grossman. "Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations." Modern Macroeconomic Theory, edited by J. P. Fitonssi, New Jersey: Barnes and Noble Books, (1983), pp. 173-184.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0498

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References

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  1. John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data," NBER Working Papers 0558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  3. Azariadis, Costas, 1978. "Escalator clauses and the allocation of cyclical risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 119-155, June.
  4. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
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Cited by:
  1. John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data," NBER Working Papers 0558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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