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The Effect of Shifting Wealth Ownership on the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Benjamin M. Friedman
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    Abstract

    Substantial shifts in wealth ownership from individuals to pension funds are currently taking place in the United States and also are in prospect for the foreseeable future. Moreover, pension funds typically exhibit portfolio preferences that are markedly different from those of individuals. In a world of heterogeneous investors, redistributions among wealth holders with different portfolio preferences will in general alter the structure of asset yields. Partial-equilibrium simulation experiments based on a model of the U. S. long-term bond market indicate that redistributions of saving flows from individuals to pension funds, in plausible magnitudes, can have major effects on the term structure of interest rates.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0239.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0239.

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    Date of creation: May 1980
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    Publication status: published as Friedman, Benjamin M. "The Effect of Shifting Wealth Ownership on the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Pensions." Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. XCIV, No. 3, (May 1980), pp. 567-588.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0239

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    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1970. "A Consumption-Oriented Theory of the Demand for Financial Assets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 321-51, July.
    2. Tsiang, S C, 1972. "The Rationale of the Mean-Standard Deviation Analysis, Skewness Preference, and the Demand for Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 354-71, June.
    3. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Foley, Duncan K, 1975. "On Two Specifications of Asset Equilibrium in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 303-24, April.
    5. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
    6. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 569.
    7. Feldstein, Martin S, 1969. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(105), pages 5-12, January.
    8. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
    9. James Tobin, 1956. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
    11. Oldfield, George S, Jr, 1977. "Financial Aspects of the Private Pension System," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 48-54, February.
    12. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
    13. Borch, Karl, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Indifference Curves," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(105), pages 1-4, January.
    14. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-49, Part I, M.
    15. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Multiperiod Consumption-Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 163-74, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1995. "Economic Implications of Changing Share Ownership," NBER Working Papers 5141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U.S. Capital Raising Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 0917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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