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Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information

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  • Patrick Bajari
  • Han Hong
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Abstract

Recently, empirical industrial organization economists have proposed estimators for dynamic games of incomplete information. In these models, agents choose from a finite number actions and maximize expected discounted utility in a Markov perfect equilibrium. Previous econometric methods estimate the probability distribution of agents%u2019 actions in a first stage. In a second step, a finite vector of parameters of the period return function are estimated. In this paper, we develop semiparametric estimators for dynamic games allowing for continuous state variables and a nonparametric first stage. The estimates of the structural parameters are T1/2 consistent (where T is the sample size) and asymptotically normal even though the first stage is estimated nonparametrically. We also propose sufficient conditions for identification of the model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0320.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0320

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  1. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2005. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrics 0504006, EconWPA.
  2. Hotz, V.J. & Miller, R.A., 1991. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," GSIA Working Papers 1992-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  3. Newey, Whitney K, 1994. "The Asymptotic Variance of Semiparametric Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1349-82, November.
  4. Patrick Bajari & John Krainer, 2004. "An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects," NBER Working Papers 10665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Elie Tamer & Federico Ciliberto, 2004. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 517, Econometric Society.
  6. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Efficient Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 809-37, July.
  7. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
  8. Pesendorfer, Martin & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 3965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09.
  10. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
  11. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
  12. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Gautam Gowrisankaran, 2006. "Quantifying equilibrium network externalities in the ACH banking industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 738-761, 09.
  13. Davis, Peter, 2006. "Estimation of quantity games in the presence of indivisibilities and heterogeneous firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 187-214, September.
  14. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
  15. James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Levin (Stanford University) & Pat Bajari & Lanier Benkard, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 627, Econometric Society.
  2. Pedro Mira & Victor Aguirregabiria, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers wp2007_0711, CEMFI.
  3. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2006. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," 2006 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December.
  5. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2008. "Sequential Estimation of Structural Models with a Fixed Point Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2507, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September.
  7. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2011. "Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2012. "A Practical Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 481-498, May.
  9. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20065, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  10. Xiao, Mo & Orazem, Peter, 2006. "Do Entry Conditions Vary over Time? Entry and Competition in the Broadband Market: 1999-2003," Staff General Research Papers 12500, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Song Yao & Carl F. Mela, 2008. "A Dynamic Model of Sponsored Search Advertising," Working Papers 08-16, NET Institute, revised Sep 2008.
  12. Carlos Daniel Santos, 2009. "Recovering the Sunk Costs of R&D: the Moulds Industry Case," CEP Discussion Papers dp0958, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Norman Offstein, 2007. "An extortionary guerrilla movement," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 995-1011.

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