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Bootstrap and Higher-Order Expansion Validity When Instruments May Be Weak

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Author Info
Marcelo J. Moreira
Jack R. Porter
Gustavo A. Suarez

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Abstract

It is well-known that size-adjustments based on Edgeworth expansions for the t-statistic perform poorly when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variable. This paper shows, however, that the lack of Edgeworth expansions and bootstrap validity are not tied to the weak instrument framework, but instead depends on which test statistic is examined. In particular, Edgeworth expansions are valid for the score and conditional likelihood ratio approaches, even when the instruments are uncorrelated with the endogenous explanatory variable. Furthermore, there is a belief that the bootstrap method fails when instruments are weak, since it replaces parameters with inconsistent estimators. Contrary to this notion, we provide a theoretical proof that guarantees the validity of the bootstrap for the score test, as well as the validity of the conditional bootstrap for many conditional tests. Monte Carlo simulations show that the bootstrap actually decreases size distortions in both cases.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0302.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0302

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo Moreira & James H. Stock, 2004. "Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Qumsiyeh, Maher B., 1990. "Edgeworth expansion in regression models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 86-101, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The Bootstrap," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 52, pages 3159-3228 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frank Kleibergen, 2004. "Expansions of GMM statistics that indicate their properties under weak and/or many instruments and the bootstrap," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 408, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
  6. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  7. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  8. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Atsushi Inoue, 2006. "A bootstrap approach to moment selection," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 48-75, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Patrik Buggenberger & Richard Smith, 2003. "Generalized empirical likelihood estimators and tests under partial, weak and strong identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2000. "Inconsistency of the Bootstrap when a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Parameter Space," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 399-406, March.
  12. Sargan, J D, 1976. "Econometric Estimators and the Edgeworth Approximation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 421-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Phillips, Peter C B, 1977. "A General Theorem in the Theory of Asymptotic Expansions as Approximations to the Finite Sample Distributions of Econometric Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1517-34, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Moreira, Marcelo J., 2009. "Tests with correct size when instruments can be arbitrarily weak," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 131-140, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1990. "Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 967-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2004. "Estimation with weak instruments: Accuracy of higher-order bias and MSE approximations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 272-306, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "Empirical Likelihood Estimation in Dynamic Panel Models," ESE Discussion Papers 168, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Bootstrap Inference in a Linear Equation Estimated by Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 1024, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2008. "Wild Bootstrap Tests for IV Regression," Working Papers 1135, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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