Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments

Contents:

Author Info

  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

This paper uses Wald's concept of the risk of a statistical decision function to address the question: How should sample data on treatment response be used to guide treatment choices in a heterogeneous population? Statistical treatment rules (STRs) are statistical decision functions that map observed covariates of population members and sample data on treatment response into treatment choices. I propose evaluation of STRs by their expected welfare (negative risk in Wald's terms), and I apply this criterion to compare two STRs when the sample data are generated by a classical randomized experiment. The rules compared both embody the reasonable idea that persons should be assigned the treatment with the best empirical success rate, but they differ in their use of covariate information. The conditional success (CS) rule selects treatments with the best empirical success rates conditional on specified covariates and the unconditional success (US) rule selects a treatment with the best unconditional empirical success rate. The main finding is a proposition giving finite-sample bounds on expected welfare under the two rules. The bounds, which rest on a large-deviations theorem of Hoeffding, yield explicit sample-size and distributional conditions under which the CS Rule is superior to the US rule.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0242.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0242.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: May 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Manski, Charles F. "Statistical Treatment Rules For Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, 2004, v72(4,Jul), 1221-1246.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0242

Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hotz, V Joseph & Mullin, Charles H & Sanders, Seth G, 1997. "Bounding Causal Effects Using Data from a Contaminated Natural Experiment: Analysing the Effects of Teenage Childbearing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 575-603, October.
  2. Manski, Charles F, 1997. "The Mixing Problem in Programme Evaluation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 537-53, October.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9217 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Manski, C.F. & Nagin, D.S., 1996. "Bounding Disagreements About Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 9526r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  5. Rajeev Dehejia, 1999. "Program Evaluation as a Decision Problem," NBER Working Papers 6954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frank Stafford, 1985. "Income-Maintenance Policy and Work Effort: Learning from Experiments and Labor-Market Studies," NBER Chapters, in: Social Experimentation, pages 95-144 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May.
  10. repec:att:wimass:9604 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
  12. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey, 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535, October.
  13. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
  14. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rajeev Dehejia, 1999. "Program Evaluation as a Decision Problem," NBER Working Papers 6954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.