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Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data, with an Example from LocalPublic Finance

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Author Info
Douglas Holtz-Eakin
Whitney K. Newey
Harvey S. Rosen

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Abstract

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects, and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations Q Particular attention is paid to specifying lag lengths and forming convenient test statistics. The empirical results suggest that intertemporal linkages are important to the understanding of state and local behavior. Such linkages are ignored in conventional cross sectional regressions. Also, we present evidence that past grant revenues help to predict current expenditures, but that past expenditures do not help to predict current revenues.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0048.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0048

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hamilton, Bruce W., 1983. "The flypaper effect and other anomalies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 347-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Card, David, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 761-81, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. White, Halbert, 1982. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Independent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 483-99, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lundberg, Shelly J, 1985. "Tied Wage-Hours Offers and the Endogeneity of Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 405-10, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pakes, Ariel & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Estimating Distributed Lags in Short Panels with an Application to the Specification of Depreciation Patterns and Capital Stock Constructs," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2), pages 243-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Panos, Sousounis, 2008. "State dependence in work-related training participation among British employees: A comparison of different random effects probit estimators," MPRA Paper 14261, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "A Panel Data Approach for Income-Health Causality," Working Papers FNU-47, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joshua Angrist, 1989. "Minimum Chi-Square and Three-Stage Least Squares in Fixed Effects Models," Working Papers 626, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  4. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1986. "Testing for Individual Effects in Dynamic Models Using Panel Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1989. "Why Do Fixed-Effects Models Perform So Poorly? The Case of Academic Salaries," NBER Working Papers 2135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Saul Lach & Mark Schankerman, 1987. "The Interaction Between Capital Investment and R&D in Science-Based Firms," NBER Working Papers 2377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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