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Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data, with an Example from LocalPublic Finance

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  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin
  • Whitney K. Newey
  • Harvey S. Rosen

Abstract

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects, and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations Q Particular attention is paid to specifying lag lengths and forming convenient test statistics. The empirical results suggest that intertemporal linkages are important to the understanding of state and local behavior. Such linkages are ignored in conventional cross sectional regressions. Also, we present evidence that past grant revenues help to predict current expenditures, but that past expenditures do not help to predict current revenues.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0048.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
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Publication status: published as Holtz-Eakin D., W. Newey, and H. Rosen. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data," from Econometrica, Vol. 56, No. 6, (November 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0048

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  1. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  3. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
  4. Lundberg, Shelly J, 1985. "Tied Wage-Hours Offers and the Endogeneity of Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 405-10, August.
  5. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1982. "Time Series Representation of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labor Market," Working Papers 528, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  6. White, Halbert, 1982. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Independent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 483-99, March.
  7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  8. Pakes, Ariel & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Estimating Distributed Lags in Short Panels with an Application to the Specification of Depreciation Patterns and Capital Stock Constructs," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 243-62, April.
  9. Hamilton, Bruce W., 1983. "The flypaper effect and other anomalies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 347-361, December.
  10. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  12. Craig, Steven G & Inman, Robert P, 1982. "Federal Aid and Public Education: An Empirical Look at the New Fiscal Federalism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 541-52, November.
  13. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Yasemin Yalta & A. Talha Yalta, 2011. "Does Financial Liberalization Decrease Capital Flight? A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers 1102, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  2. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1987. "Why Do Fixed-Effects Models Perform So Poorly? The Case of Academic Salaries," NBER Working Papers 2135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "A Panel Data Approach for Income-Health Causality," Working Papers FNU-47, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
  4. Panos, Sousounis, 2008. "State dependence in work-related training participation among British employees: A comparison of different random effects probit estimators," MPRA Paper 14261, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
  5. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1986. "Testing for Individual Effects in Dynamic Models Using Panel Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Saul Lach & Mark Schankerman, 1987. "The Interaction Between Capital Investment and R&D in Science-Based Firms," NBER Working Papers 2377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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