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Estimating Autocorrelations in Fixed-Effects Models

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  • Gary Solon

Abstract

This paper discusses the estimation of serial correlation in fixed effects models for longitudinal data. Like time series data, longitudinal data often contain serially correlated error terms, but the autocorrelation estimators commonly used for time series, which are consistent as the length of the time series goes to infinity, are not consistent for a short time series as the size of the cross-section goes to infinity. This form of inconsistency is of particular concern because a short time series of a large cross-section is the typical case in longitudinal data. This paper extends Nickell's method of correcting for the inconsistency of autocorrelation estimators by generalizing to higher than first-order autocorrelations and to error processes other than first-order autoregressions. The paper also presents statistical tables that facilitate the identification and estimation of autocorrelation processes in both the generalized Nickell method and an alternative method due to MaCurdy. Finally, the paper uses Monte Carlo methods to explore the finite-sample properties of both methods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0032.

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Date of creation: Feb 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0032

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References

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  1. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
  2. Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility," NBER Working Papers 0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stephen Nickell, 1980. "Correcting the Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Working Papers 513, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  4. Orley Ashenfelter & Gary Solon, 1982. "Longitudinal Labor Market Data: Sources, Uses, and Limitations," Working Papers 535, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  5. repec:fth:prinin:155 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:fth:prinin:133 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October.
  8. Mellow, Wesley S, 1981. "Unionism and Wages: A Longitudinal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 43-52, February.
  9. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Phillip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, 2004. "The Social Costs of Gun Ownership," NBER Working Papers 10736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Vaage, Kjell & Aakvik, Arild & Jacobsen, Karl, 2008. "Estimates of Intergenerational Elasticities Based on Lifetime Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 3709, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Baker, Laurence C., 1997. "The effect of HMOs on fee-for-service health care expenditures: Evidence from Medicare," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 453-481, August.
  4. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  5. Laurence C. Baker, 1995. "HMOs and Fee-For-Service Health Care Expenditures: Evidence from Medicare," NBER Working Papers 5360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christopher L. Foote, 2007. "Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited," Working Papers 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  7. Gary Solon & Mary Corcoran & Roger H. Gordon & Deborah Laren, 1987. "The Effect of Family Background on Economic Status: A Longitudinal Analysis of Sibling Correlations," NBER Working Papers 2282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Inoue, Atsushi & Solon, Gary, 2006. "A Portmanteau Test For Serially Correlated Errors In Fixed Effects Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 835-851, October.
  9. Michael Baker & Kevin Milligan, 2005. "How Does Job-Protected Maternity Leave Affect Mothers' Employment and Infant Health?," NBER Working Papers 11135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lee, Yoonseok, 2012. "Bias in dynamic panel models under time series misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 54-60.
  11. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
  12. Michael Baker & Emily Hanna & Jasmin Kantarevic, 2003. "The Married Widow: Marriage Penalties Matter!," NBER Working Papers 9782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Generalized least squares inference in panel and multilevel models with serial correlation and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 670-694, October.

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