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Consequences of the euro adoption by Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries for their trade flows

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  • Andrzej Cieślik

    (Warsaw University, Department of Economics)

  • Jan, Jakub Michałek

    (Warsaw University, Department of Economics)

  • Jerzy Mycielski

    (Warsaw University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the trade effects of the euro adoption in Central European countries using a modified gravity model. In particular, we analyze the ex post implications of accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone. We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. Trade theory variables include both the country size and factor proportion variables. Trade policy variables include the membership in GATT/WTO, CEFTA, OECD, EU and Europe Agreements. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1992-2010 using the fixed effects, random effects and Hausman-Taylor estimators. It seems that elimination of exchange rate volatility resulted in trade expansion for the CEE countries but the accession to the Eurozone did not have any significant effects on exports of Slovakia and Slovenia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 118.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:118

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Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; exports; euro zone;

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