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La consommation privée en Belgique

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Author Info
Benoît Eugène () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)
Philippe Jeanfils () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)
Benoît Robert () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the path of private consumption and its main macroeconomic determinants. These are related to the life-cycle approach which helps explaining consumption smoothing. In that respect, it is important to go beyond the simple correlation between current disposable income and consumption to incorporate future income expectations and wealth. As for this latter, the paper also proceeds to a careful description of the mechanisms at work in the wealth effect and of the structure of Belgian households' wealth. Empirically, it is shown that in Belgium human wealth plays a far larger role than financial wealth while the interest rate reflects intertemporal substitution in explaining long-term desired consumption. Variations in these long-term determinants impact only gradually on consumption dynamics, highlighting the fact that changes need to be sustained to have sizeable effects. Finally, in addition to the interest rate, human and financial wealth, the significance of liquidity-constrained consumers and of a confidence indicator are tested. However it does not seem that they exhibit a significant contribution to consumption growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Documents series with number 200306-2.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbb:docwpp:200306-2

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Related research
Keywords: branch survey; car industry; subcontracting; indirect effects;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Input-Output Models
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure
L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment
R15 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
R34 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Production Analysis and Firm Location - - - Input Demand Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. John Vickers, 2000. "Monetary union and economic growth," Research series 200005-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Mia Hubert & Peter J. Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf, 2002. "Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities," Research series 200205-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. François Coppens & George Van Gastel, 2003. "De autonijverheid in België," Documents series 200306-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Research series 200005-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Research series 200003-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Paul Masson, 2000. "Fiscal policy and growth in the context of European integration," Research series 200005-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Patrick Bisciari, 2001. "Nouvelle économie," Documents series 200104, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Charles Wyplosz, 2000. "Economic growth and the labor markets: Europe's challenge," Research series 200005-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  10. Julian Franks & Colin Mayer, 2002. "Governance as a source of managerial discipline," Research series 200205-12, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "The role of the exchange rate in economic growth: a euro-zone perspective," Research series 200005-5, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alain Nyssens & Paul Butzen & Patrick Bisciari, 2000. "Performances économiques des Etats-Unis dans les années nonante," Documents series 200003-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Michele Cincera, 2002. "Financing constraints, fixed capital and R&D investment decisions of belgian firms," Research series 200205-13, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Philippe Jeanfils, 2001. "A guided tour of the world of rational expectations models and optimal policies," Research series 2001-06, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on investment plans," Research series 200205-5, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2004. "Economic importance of the Flemish maritime ports: Report 2002," Documents series 200406, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Documents series 200801-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  3. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2005. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003," Documents series 200510-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Financial intermediation theory and implications for the sources of value in structured finance markets," Documents series 200507-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  5. Johan Devriese & Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Liquidity risk in securities settlement," Research series 200507-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Documents series 200711-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2004. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2002," Documents series 200411-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  8. Annick Bruggeman, 2007. "Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?," Research series 200708-08, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname \u2013 A new quarterly model for Belgium," Research series 200505-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  10. Helga De Doncker, 2006. "Crédits aux particuliers - Analyse des données de la Centrale des Crédits aux Particuliers," Documents series 200601-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carine Swartenbroekx, 2007. "The gas chain : influence of its specificities on the liberalisation process," Documents series 200711-24, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  12. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Research series 200710-12, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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