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Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

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Author Info

  • Suzi Kerr

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Simon Anastasiadis

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Alex Olssen

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • William Power

    ()
    (GNS Science)

  • Levente Tímár

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and GNS Science)

  • Wei Zhang

    ()
    (Ministry for Primary Industries)

Abstract

We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 12_10.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_10

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Related research

Keywords: land use; land-use change; LURNZ; greenhouse-gas emissions; afforestation; forestry removals; New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme; integrated modelling; agricultural production;

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References

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  1. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
  2. Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 31-54, January.
  3. Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo, 2006. "Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests Under Different Carbon Price Regimes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 109-126.
  4. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
  5. Chomitz, Kenneth M & Gray, David A, 1996. "Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 487-512, September.
  6. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-52, June.
  7. Joanna Hendy & Suzi Kerr & Troy Baisden, 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1: Model Description)," Working Papers 07_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  8. Gerald C. Nelson & GVirginia Harris & Steven W. Stone, 2001. "Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 187-205.
  9. Daigneault, Adam J. & Greenhalgh, Suzie & Samarasinghe, Oshadhi, 2012. "Economic Impacts of GHG and Nutrient Reduction Policies in New Zealand: A Tale of Two Catchments," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124284, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  10. Suzi Kerr & Alexander Pfaff & Romina Cavatassi & Benjamin Davis & Leslie Lipper & Arturo Sanchez & Jason Timmins, 2004. "Effects of Poverty on Deforestation: Distinguishing behaviour from location," Working Papers 04-19, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
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