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Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model

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Author Info

  • Suzi Kerr

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Alex Olssen

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

Rural land use is important for New Zealand’s economic and environmental outcomes. Using a dynamic econometric model and recent New Zealand data, we estimate the response of land use to changing economic returns as proxied by relevant commodity prices. Because New Zealand is small, export prices are credibly exogenous. We show that land use responses can be slow. Our result implies that policy-induced land-use change is likely to be slow or costly.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 12-06.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_06

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Keywords: Land use; New Zealand; time series;

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References

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  1. Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 31-54, January.
  2. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Lattimore, Ralph G. & Lloyd, Peter J. & MacLaren, Donald, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia and New Zealand," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 10407, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  4. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for Homogeneity in Demand Systems When the Regressors Are Nonstationary," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 147-63, April-Jun.
  5. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  6. Miller, Douglas & Plantinga, Andrew J., 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," Staff General Research Papers 1487, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-52, June.
  8. Douglas J. Miller & Andrew J. Plantinga, 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 180-194.
  9. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
  10. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  11. Anderson, G J & Blundell, R W, 1982. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Dynamic Singular Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1559-71, November.
  12. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  13. Schatzki, Todd, 2003. "Options, uncertainty and sunk costs:: an empirical analysis of land use change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 86-105, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Examining Patterns in and Drivers of Rural Land Values," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160191, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Schilling, Chris & Kaye-Blake, William & Post, Elizabeth & Rains, Scott, 2012. "The importance of farmer behaviour: an application of Desktop MAS, a multi-agent system model for rural New Zealand communities," 2012 Conference, August 31, 2012, Nelson, New Zealand 136070, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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