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Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model

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Author Info

  • Suzi Kerr

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Shuguang Liu

    (EROS Data Center)

  • Alexander S. P. Pfaff

    (Columbia University)

  • R. Flint Hughes

    (USDA Forest Service)

Abstract

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 03_06.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:03_06

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Keywords: carbon; sequestration; climate change; land use; modelling;

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References

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  1. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-52, June.
  2. Lakshminarayan, P. G. & Gassman, Philip W. & Bouzaher, Aziz & Izaurralde, R. Cesar, 1996. "Metamodeling Approach to Evaluate Agricultural Policy Impact on Soil Degradation in Western Canada (A)," Staff General Research Papers 1091, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 994-1009, September.
  4. Douglas J. Miller, 1999. "An Econometric Analysis of the Costs of Sequestering Carbon in Forests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 812-824.
  5. Pfaff, Alexander S. P., 1999. "What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?: Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-43, January.
  6. Suzi Kerr & Richard G. Newell, 2003. "Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 317-343, 09.
  7. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  8. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.
  2. Thakur Upadhyay & Birger Solberg & Prem Sankhayan & Chander Shahi, 2013. "Land-use changes, forest/soil conditions and carbon sequestration dynamics: A bio-economic model at watershed level in Nepal," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-170, July.
  3. van der Werf, Edwin & Peterson, Sonja, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: An overview," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32535, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  4. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Working Papers 05_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  5. Garth Holloway & Donald Lacombe & James P. LeSage, 2007. "Spatial Econometric Issues for Bio-Economic and Land-Use Modelling," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 549-588, 09.
  6. Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy & Shuguang Liu & Alexander S. P. Pfaff, 2004. "Tropical Forest Protection, Uncertainty, and the Environmental Integrity of Carbon Mitigation Policies," Working Papers 04_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  7. Suzi Kerr, 2003. "Indigenous Forests and Forest Sink Policy in New Zealand," Working Papers 03_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  8. Upadhyay, T.P. & Solberg, Birger & Sankhayan, Prem L., 2006. "Use of models to analyse land-use changes, forest/soil degradation and carbon sequestration with special reference to Himalayan region: A review and analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 349-371, December.
  9. David C. Maré & Michelle Poland, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Working Papers 05_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  10. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
  11. Lehtonen, Heikki & Peltola, Jukka & Sinkkonen, Marko, 2006. "Co-effects of climate policy and agricultural policy on regional agricultural viability in Finland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(2-3), pages 472-493, June.
  12. Suzi Kerr & Leslie Lipper & Alexander S.P. Pfaff & Romina Cavatassi & Benjamin Davis & Joanna Hendy & Arturo Sanchez, 2004. "Will Buying Tropical Forest Carbon Benefit The Poor? Evidence from Costa Rica," Working Papers 04-20, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).

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