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Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? A Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

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Ruge-Murcia, F.J.

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Abstract

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

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Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 07-2002.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:07-2002

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Keywords: Asymmetric preferences; prudence; game-theoretical models of monetary policy; ARCH;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1997. "Crucial issues concerning central bank independence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
  6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December. [Downloadable!]
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  8. C. W.J. Granger & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1996. "A Decision Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  9. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, January.
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  14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1994. "Restructuring, the NAIRU, and the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 31-44.
  16. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cahiers de recherche 2001-22, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karin Mayr & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Asymmetric Fiscal Stabilization Policy and the Public Deficit: Theory and Evidence," Vienna Economics Papers 0908, University of Vienna, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Modelling The Discrete And Infrequent Official Interest Rate Change In The Uk," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062007, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  3. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2004. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Staff General Research Papers 11995, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James M. Nason & George A. Slotsve, 2004. "Along the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with nominal and real rigidities," Working Paper 2004-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0401006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Alex Cukierman, 2007. "The limits of transparency," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 220, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  10. Araújo, Eurilton & Pinheiro, Tatiana, 2008. "Policy Preferences for Output Stability before and after Inflation Targeting," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_147, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  11. J. de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates," Working Paper CRENoS 200802, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cukierman, Alex, 2007. "Central Bank Independence and Monetary Policymaking Institutions - Past Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 6441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 183-204, September. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2006. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Staff General Research Papers 12501, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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