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Forecasting German Population Development with Monte-Carlo Methods: Further Evidence Based on a Disaggregate Model

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  • Blum, U.

Abstract

The Following Paper Extends the Idea of Monte-Carlo Simulation to the Analysis of Future Population Development in the German Context. in a Disaggregate Model We Distinguish Among German and Other Ethnic Groups Because of Their Different Fertility Rates, and According to Sex and Age. the Results for the Year 2030 Suggest a Decrease of Total Population by One Third Which Is Very Stable Against Credible Variations of Birth Rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Blum, U., 1987. "Forecasting German Population Development with Monte-Carlo Methods: Further Evidence Based on a Disaggregate Model," Cahiers de recherche 8705, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:8705
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    Keywords

    Polation Forecasts ; Simulation;

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