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Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics DUFOUR, Jean-Marie
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Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.
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Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number
2001-15.
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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2001Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2001-15Contact details of provider: Postal: CP 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montr�al, Qu�bec, H3C 3J7 Phone: (514) 343-6540 Fax: (514) 343-5831 Web page: http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: économétrie ; statistique ; théorie des tests ; ilosoie des sciences ; falsifiabilité ; Poer ; rcimonie ; identification ; instruments faibles ; modèle non ramétrique ; séries chronologiques ; modèle autorégressif ; hétéroscédasticité ; racine unitaire ; méthode robuste ; non-normalité ; oblème mal sé ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
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"Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models with Generated Regressors ,"
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"Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy ,"
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"Exact Nonparametric Orthogonality and Random Walk Tests ,"
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"Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter ,"
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Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
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"Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Jean-Marie Dufour & Joanna Jasiak, 2000.
"Finite Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors ,"
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Other versions:
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003.
"Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2003-12, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Other versions:
Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003.
"Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics ,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2003s-49, CIRANO.
[Downloadable!] DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003.
"Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics ,"
Cahiers de recherche
10-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
[Downloadable!] Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003.
"Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics ,"
Canadian Journal of Economics ,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
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"Conditional Volatility Of Most Active Shares Of Casablanca Stock Exchange ,"
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