David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University)
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Southern Africa is an increasing focus of humanitarian concern. The rate of perceived food crises in the region has increased sharply during this decade, with identified crises in 2001/02, 2002/03, and 2005/06. The world commodity price boom that started 18 months ago has accentuated concerns about the potential severity of future crises. This Policy Synthesis summarizes the findings of detailed analysis (Tschirley and Jayne 2007) about the current staple food situation in the region and about how governments have behaved towards markets and regional trade during food crises over the past decade. We then ask whether these responses show evidence of learning from past mistakes. Lastly, we consider how the commodity price boom affects the role of regional trade during food crises and the likely stance of governments in the region towards trade. The analysis concludes that the breach between actual and needed government policy during food crises threatens to become wider than ever as a result of the price boom, and suggests ways in which empirical policy analysis might contribute to closing this gap.
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