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Bayesian semiparametric GARCH models

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Author Info

  • Xibin Zhang

    ()

  • Maxwell L. King

    ()

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate a Bayesian sampling approach to parameter estimation in the semiparametric GARCH model with an unknown conditional error density, which we approximate by a mixture of Gaussian densities centered at individual errors and scaled by a common standard deviation. This mixture density has the form of a kernel density estimator of the errors with its bandwidth being the standard deviation. The proposed investigation is motivated by the lack of robustness in GARCH models with any parametric assumption of the error density for the purpose of error-density based inference such as value-at-risk (VaR) estimation. The contribution of the paper is to construct the likelihood and posterior of model and bandwidth parameters under the proposed mixture error density, and to forecast the one-step out-of-sample density of asset returns. The resulting VaR measure therefore would be distribution-free. Applying the semiparametric GARCH(1,1) model to daily stock-index returns in eight stock markets, we find that this semiparametric GARCH model is favoured against the GARCH(1,1) model with Student t errors for five indices, and that the GARCH model underestimates VaR compared to its semiparametric counterpart. We also investigate the use and benefit of localized bandwidths in the proposed mixture density of the errors.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2011/wp24-11.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 24/11.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2011-24

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Related research

Keywords: Bayes factors; kernel-form error density; localized bandwidths; Markov chain Monte Carlo; value-at-risk;

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References

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  16. Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-98, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth selection for a nonparametric regession model with mixed types of regressors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Shang, Han Lin, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 185-198.
  3. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2011. "Bayesian estimation of bandwidths for a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2013. "A sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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