Exponential Smoothing and the Akaike Information Criterion
AbstractUsing an innovations state space approach, it has been found that the Akaike information criterion (AIC) works slightly better, on average, than prediction validation on withheld data, for choosing between the various common methods of exponential smoothing for forecasting. There is, however, a puzzle. Should the count of the seed states be incorporated into the penalty term in the AIC formula? We examine arguments for and against this practice in an attempt to find an acceptable resolution of this question.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 4/09.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-07-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-07-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2009-07-03 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"Exponential Smoothing Model Selection for Forecasting,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
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