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Economic growth and contraction and their impact on the poor

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Author Info
Brett Inder ()
Abstract

This paper considers the relationship between growth in real per capita GDP and the growth in real per capita GDP of the poorest 20% of a country. It uses the data set compiled by Dollar and Kraay (2002), but come to very different conclusions. We argue that if the purpose is to answer questions about the impact of growth on the poor, models are best estimated in growth rates. The empirical results show that growth's impact on the poor occurs in two episodes. First, in periods of sustained economic slowdown (negative growth over a period of at least 5 years), the poor clearly suffer more than the average. In contrast, where economies are growing, the poor do not benefit as much as the average. We also find that the poor benefit from growth less in periods of high inflation, and in countries with low average income.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2004/wp3-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 3/04.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-3

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Growth and Inequality; Economic Contraction; Inflation and Growth.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ravi Kanbur, 2001. "Economic Policy, Distribution and Poverty: The Nature of Disagreements," Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(2). [Downloadable!]
  2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2001. "Business cycles, economic crises, and the poor : testing for asymmetric effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2700, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Easterly, William, 2001. "The effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank programs on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2517, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, inequality, and poverty : looking beyond averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2558, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chang, Gene H., 2002. "The cause and cure of China's widening income disparity," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 335-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kanbur, Ravi, 2001. "Economic Policy, Distribution and Poverty: The Nature of Disagreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1083-1094, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. " Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-87, June.
  11. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. " Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 565-91, September.
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