Coherent Predictions of Low Count Time Series
AbstractThe application of traditional forecasting methods to discrete count data yields forecasts that are non-coherent. That is, such methods produce non-integer point and interval predictions which violate the restrictions on the sample space of the integer variable. This paper presents a methodology for producing coherent forecasts of low count time series. The forecasts are based on estimates of the p-step ahead predictive mass functions for a family of distributions nested in the integer-valued first-order autoregressive (INAR(1)) class. The predictive mass functions are constructed from convolutions of the unobserved components of the model, with uncertainty associated with both parameter values and model specifcation fully incorporated. The methodology is used to analyse two sets of Canadian wage loss claims data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 8/03.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-04-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-04-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-04-21 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-RMG-2003-04-21 (Risk Management)
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