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Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting

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Author Info

  • Saligari, G.R.
  • Snyder, R.D.

Abstract

The local linear trend and global linear trend models embody extreme assumptions about trends. According to the local linear trend formulation the level and growth rate are allowed to rapidly adapt to changes in the data path. On the other hand, the Glaobal linear trend model makes no allowance for structural change. In this paper we introduce a new model that, as well as encompassing the global linear trend and local linear trend models, allows for a range of "in between" cases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 1/96.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1996-1

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Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
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Keywords: COMPETITION; TIME SERIES; FORECASTING;

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References

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  1. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  2. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
  3. Peter C. Schotman & Herman K. van Dijk, 1991. "On Bayesian routes to unit roots," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 43, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Gersch, Will & Kitagawa, Genshiro, 1983. "The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 253-64, July.
  5. P. J. Harrison, 1967. "Exponential Smoothing and Short-Term Sales Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(11), pages 821-842, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Haim H. Bau & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2002. "Chaos Theory And Its Application," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6a7863cdd8e575c9e635b060c, Penn Economics Department.

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