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Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting

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Author Info
Saligari, G.R.
Snyder, R.D.

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Abstract

The local linear trend and global linear trend models embody extreme assumptions about trends. According to the local linear trend formulation the level and growth rate are allowed to rapidly adapt to changes in the data path. On the other hand, the Glaobal linear trend model makes no allowance for structural change. In this paper we introduce a new model that, as well as encompassing the global linear trend and local linear trend models, allows for a range of "in between" cases.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 1/96.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1996-1

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Related research
Keywords: COMPETITION; TIME SERIES; FORECASTING;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

Cited by:
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  1. Haim H. Bau & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2002. "Chaos Theory And Its Application," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6a7863cdd8e575c9e635b060c, Penn Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-16.


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