Instabilité de la courbe de Phillips aux Etats-Unis : un modèle explicatif à changements de régimes
AbstractThis paper proposes a new empirical representation of inflation expectations errors in a Space-State Markov-Switching framework. We explicitly identify the dynamics of inflation expectation errors using the expectations augmented Markov-Switching Phillips curve as a measurement equation. In this paper we consider expected inflation as the underlying component of observed inflation. We thus use the same type of specification (occasionally integrated process) to describe their dynamics. We have found that dynamics of inflation expectation errors change across regimes. These switches can be associated with breaks in the Phillips Curve.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number v04048.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 106 - 112 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris cedex 13
Phone: 01 44 07 81 00
Fax: 01 44 07 81 09
Web page: http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Markov-Switching; unobservable-components; inflation expectation errors; Phillips curve; occasionally integrated process.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1969. "Commodity Price Expectations and the Interest Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 127-40, February.
- Hasan Bakhshi & Anthony Yates, 1998. "Are UK inflation expectations rational?," Bank of England working papers 81, Bank of England.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997.
"The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1979. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 35-52, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucie Label).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.