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Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénérationnelle : simulations dans un cadre d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées

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  • Mouez Fodha

    ()
    (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)

  • Patricia Le Maitre

    ()
    (Université de Bretagne Sud)

Abstract

Pay as-you-go social security schemes will face increasing difficulties in the next few years due to population aging, which results from both extension of life expectancy and sharp decrease in fertility rates. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate within a computable general equilibrium model the consequences of different reforms within an economy with two types of agents : unqualified ones facing unemployment and qualified ones. We show that a mixed reform with two instruments (introduction of a funded pension system and decreasing of benefits) is Pareto-improving in the long term, while damaging welfare distribution. Morerover, simultations show that the increase of the legal retirement age should be up to seven years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number v07011.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:v07011

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Keywords: Overlapping generations model; pay as-you-go pension system; ageing population; involuntary unemployment.;

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  1. A. Lans Bovenberg & Johan J. Graafland & Ruud A. de Mooij, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labor Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 6693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, B. C. C., 2001. "The effects of ageing and an environmental trust fund in an overlapping generations model on carbon emission reductions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 311-326, February.
  3. R. Magnani, 2005. "Vieillissement de la population en Italie et efficacité des réformes Amato et Dini : un modèle d’équilibre général à générations imbriquées," THEMA Working Papers 2005-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  4. Bohringer, Christoph & Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2005. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-108, January.
  5. Wendner, Ronald, 2001. "An applied dynamic general equilibrium model of environmental tax reforms and pension policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 25-50, January.
  6. Queisser, Monika & Whitehouse, Edward, 2005. "Pensions at a glance: public policies across OECD countries," MPRA Paper 10907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
  8. John Hutton & Anna Ruocco, 1999. "Tax Reform and Employment in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 263-287, August.
  9. Granier, P. & Michel, P., 1996. "Dynamique du capital et du chomage avec salaire minimum dans le modele de croissance a generations imbriquees," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  10. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, December.
  11. Jensen, Svend Erik Hougaard & Bo Nielsen, Soren & Pedersen, Lars Haagen & Sorensen, Peter Birch, 1996. "Tax policy, housing and the labour market: An intertemporal simulation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 355-382, July.
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