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Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénérationnelle : simulations dans un cadre d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées

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Pay as-you-go social security schemes will face increasing difficulties in the next few years due to population aging, which results from both extension of life expectancy and sharp decrease in fertility rates. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate within a computable general equilibrium model the consequences of different reforms within an economy with two types of agents: unqualified ones facing unemployment and qualified ones. We show that a mixed reform with two instruments (introduction of a funded pension system and decreasing of benefits) is Pareto-improving in the long term, while damaging welfare distribution. Morerover, simultations show that the increase of the legal retirement age should be up to seven years

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  • Mouez Fodha & Patricia Le Maitre, 2007. "Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénérationnelle : simulations dans un cadre d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne v07011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:v07011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping generations model; pay as-you-go pension system; ageing population; involuntary unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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