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Credit and recessions

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Abstract

The paper develops a simple model on the asymmetric role of credit markets in output fluctuations. When credit markets are underdeveloped and enterprise activity is financed by trade credit, shocks may induce a break-up of credit and production chains, leading to sudden and sharp contractions. The development of a banking sector can reduce the probability of such collapses and hence plays a crucial role in softening output declines. However, the banking sector becomes a shock amplifier when shocks originate in the financial sector. Using industry-level data across a large cross-section of countries, we provide evidence in support of the model's predictions.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2010/10022.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 10022.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:10022

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Keywords: Credit chains; trade credit; recessions; financial development.;

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  1. Raddatz, Claudio, 2008. "Credit chains and sectoral comovemen t: does the use of trade credit amplify sectoral shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4525, The World Bank.
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  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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