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Forecasting Labor Force Participation and Economic Resources of the Early Baby Boomers

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  • Pierre-Carl Michaud

    (RAND and IZA)

  • Susann Rohwedder

    (RAND)

Abstract

This paper forecasts the retirement patterns and resources of the Early Baby Boomers by estimating forward-looking dynamic models of labor force participation, wealth accumulation and pension and Social Security benefit claiming for older workers using seven waves of HRSdata. The two most important innovations of our proposed approach are the use of alternative measures of pension entitlements and the associated incentives, and accounting for subjective expectations about future work. Our main findings are that the Early Baby Boomers will work longer and claim Social Security later.

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File URL: http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp175.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp175.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp175

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  1. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Social Security, Pensions and Retirement Behavior Within the Family," Working Papers wp018, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David A. Wise, 1987. "Employee Retirement and a Firm's Pension Plan," NBER Working Papers 2323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1983. "A Structural Retirement Model," NBER Working Papers 1237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
  5. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arthur van Soest, 2008. "How Did the Elimination of the US Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Labour Supply Expectations?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 197-231, 06.
  6. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2004. "Personal Accounts and Family Retirement," NBER Working Papers 10305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2002. "Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward-Looking Behavior. Part II: Empirical Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(3), pages 600-622.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Westermeier & Anika Rasner & Markus M. Grabka, 2012. "The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 440, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

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