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The Anatomy of Growth in the OECD since 1870: the Transformation from the Post-Malthusian Growth Regime to the Modern Growth Epoch

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Author Info
Jakob B. Madsen

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Abstract

This paper extends conventional growth accounting exercises to allow for endogeneity of capital, the demographic transition, age dependency, and employment rates among other factors. Using data for the OECD countries in the period 1870-2006 it is shown that growth has been predominantly driven by demographics and TFP growth. TFP has in turn been driven by R&D, knowledge spillovers through the channel of imports, educational attainment, and the interaction between educational attainment and the distance to the frontier. The estimates suggest permanent growth effects of R&D and human capital and, therefore, that growth can be expected to be positive for the rest of this century.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 2009-14.

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Length: 31 pages
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Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-14

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Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
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Related research
Keywords: human capital; demographic transition; endogenous growth models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Madsen, Jakob B, 1998. "General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models of Unemployment: Can They Explain the Unemployment Path in the OECD?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 850-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Griliches, Zvi, 1990. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dowrick, Steve & Nguyen, Duc-Tho, 1989. "OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-85: Catch-Up and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1010-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 1785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2001. "Quantifying Quality Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1006-1030, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. " Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dowrick, Steve & Gemmell, Norman, 1991. "Industrialisation, Catching Up and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study across the World's Capitalist Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 263-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Pietro Peretto & Sjak Smulders, 2002. "Technological Distance, Growth And Scale Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 603-624, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno v., 1998. "International R&D spillovers: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1483-1491, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Growth And Capital Deepening Since 1870: Is It All Technological Progress?," Monash Economics Working Papers 10/09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Joonkyung Ha & Peter Howitt, 2007. "Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 733-774, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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