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Is The Output-Capital Ratio Constant In The Very Long Run?

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  • Jakob Madsen
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

A key prediction of standard models of economic growth is that the output-capital ratio is constant along the economy's balanced growth path. Using data for 16 OECD countries over 135 years we examine whether the output-capital ratio reverts to a constant in the long run using univariate and panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. Univariate unit root tests with one and two breaks in the mean suggest that, in most circumstances, the output-capital ratio fails to revert towards a mean. However, when we allow for up to five breaks in the mean we find that for 15 of the 16 countries, the output-capital ratio is stationary and that the output-capital ratio is also panel stationary.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 10/08.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2008-10

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  1. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-92, May.
  3. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  4. Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy," FRU Working Papers 2004/11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
  5. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. A. Scorcu, 2002. "On the Time Stability of the Output-Capital Ratio," Working Papers 434, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  7. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  8. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  10. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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