IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2006-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?

Author

Listed:
  • Hooi Hooi Lean
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's ten major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. While the effects of shocks are not permanent we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets have generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2006-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/1106malaysia.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "Fiji's Tourism Demand: The ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 193-206, June.
    2. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    3. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 751-761, June.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing the Unit Root Hypothesis When the Alternative is a Trend Break Stationary Process: An Application to Tourist Arrivals in Fiji," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 351-364, September.
    8. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    9. Russell Smyth & Ingrid Nielsen & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1367-1378.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji: evidence from unit root structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1157-1161.
    11. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 818-848, December.
    12. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    13. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    14. Peggy Teo, 2003. "Limits of imagineering: a case study of Penang," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 545-563, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paresh k. Narayan, 2007. "Testing Convergence Of Fiji’S Tourism Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-663, December.
    2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    3. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Malaysia's Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-112, March.
    5. Tuck Cheong Tang & Koi Nyen Wong, 2009. "Research Note: The SARS Epidemic and International Visitor Arrivals to Cambodia: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 883-890, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    3. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 895-922, April.
    4. Lean Hooi Hooi & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Are Asian real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2109-2120.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are Australia's tourism markets converging?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1153-1162.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70.
    7. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Malaysia's Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-112, March.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    9. Chor Foon Tang, 2015. "How Stable is the Savings-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia? The Bootstrap Simulation and Recursive Causality Tests," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
    11. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    12. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
    13. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 315-333, August.
    15. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2012. "Mean reversion in bilateral real exchange rates: evidence from the Malaysian ringgit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2921-2933, August.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2010. "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 759-782, April.
    18. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Malaysia?," MPRA Paper 19778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.
    20. Ikerne del Valle & Jordi Guillen & Kepa Astorkiza, 2017. "Substituting hake with sardines? Economic crisis and fish demand in Spain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 600-610, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2006-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Angus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.