Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?
AbstractInternational visitor arrivals from Malaysia's ten major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. While the effects of shocks are not permanent we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets have generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 11/06.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2009-07-17 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TUR-2009-07-17 (Tourism Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
- Russell Smyth & Ingrid Nielsen & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1367-1378.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 751-761, June.
- Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004.
"Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break,"
04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
- Tom Doan, . "LSUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lee-Strazicich unit root tests with one or more structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00112, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peggy Teo, 2003. "Limits of imagineering: a case study of Penang," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 545-563, 09.
- Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji: evidence from unit root structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1157-1161.
- Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 05-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Angus).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.