Bivariate Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices on Major Asian Countries
AbstractThis paper studies the cointegration and the bivariate causality relationship between exchange rates and stock prices on the seven Asian countries badly hit by the Asian Financial Crisis. Our empirical results show that, before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, all countries, except the Philippines and Malaysia, experience no evidence of Granger causality between the exchange rates and the stock prices. However, the causality but not the cointegration between the capital and financial markets appear to become strong during the Asian Financial Crisis period. Surprisingly, after the 911-terrorist-attack, the causality relationship between the two markets returns to normal as in the pre-Asian-crisis period and the cointegration relationship weakens between exchange rates and stock prices. Thus, we conclude that (1) Asian Financial Crisis has a bigger and more direct impact on the causality relationship between stock prices and currency exchanges in Asian markets and the 911-terrorist-attack basically has no impact on the causality relationship between the two markets; and (2) the financial and capital markets have become more mature and efficient after the crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 10/05.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2009-07-17 (International Finance)
- NEP-SEA-2009-07-17 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Steven B. Kamin, 1999. "The current international financial crisis: how much is new?," International Finance Discussion Papers 636, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September.
- Kearney, Colm, 1998. "The Causes of Volatility in a Small, Internationally Integrated Stock Market: Ireland, July 1975-June 1994," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 85-104, Spring.
- Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. " Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-85, December.
- Kwack, Sung Yeung, 2000. "An empirical analysis of the factors determining the financial crisis in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 195-206.
- Boyer, Russell S, 1977. "Devaluation and Portfolio Balance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 54-63, March.
- Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1992. "The International Crash of October 1987: Causality Tests," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 353-364, September.
- Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
- Bodart, V. & Reding, P., 1998.
"Exchange Rate Regime, Volatility and International Correlations on Bond and Stock Markets,"
204, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
- Bodart, Vincent & Reding, Paul, 1999. "Exchange rate regime, volatility and international correlations on bond and stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 133-151, January.
- Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999.
"Lessons from the Asian crisis,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1975. "Portfolio Equilibrium and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 674-88, September.
- Chamberlain, Sandra & Howe, John S. & Popper, Helen, 1997. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 871-892, June.
- Kamin, Steven B., 1999. "The current international financial crisis:: how much is new?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 501-514, August.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Jia He & Lilian K. Ng, 1998. "The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 733-753, 04.
- Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Angus).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.