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Transferts privés de Côte d'Ivoire et pauvreté durable et transitoire au Burkina Faso : une analyse spatio-temporelle

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La baisse des transferts privés en provenance de Côte d'Ivoire a eu un fort impact négatif sur la pauvreté transitoire au Burkina Faso entre 1998 et 2003. Telle est la principale conclusion de l'étude, fondée les informations des deux dernières enquêtes prioritaires auprès des ménages. Premièrement, une approche en termes de niveaux montre que, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, une diminution de 10 pour cent des envois de fonds par tête de Côte d'Ivoire induit une élévation du taux de pauvreté transitoire de 1,89 pour cent. Par contre, la réduction des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire n'a pas significativement influencé la pauvreté durable, alors que le ratio vulnérabilité/incidence de pauvreté augmente avec ces derniers. Deuxièmement, une approche en termes de différences met en évidence, au niveau régional, une relation inverse, statistiquement significative, entre le taux de croissance des transferts de Côte d'Ivoire et le taux de croissance des mesures de la pauvreté durable et transitoire. Les élasticités de la variation de la pauvreté par rapport à la variation des transferts ivoiriens, calculées à la moyenne des taux de croissance des dépenses et de l'indice de Gini, ont les valeurs de -0,090 et de -0,123, respectivement, pour les ratios de pauvreté durable et transitoire. La validité de ces résultats est renforcée par deux éléments d'analyse. D'une part, l'accroissement de la pauvreté globale entre 1998 et 2003 est essentiellement imputable à la progression de la « pauvreté transitoire évolutive » – caractérisant des ménages pauvres, mais faiblement vulnérables. Or, la réduction des transferts en direction des ménages représente un déficit ponctuel de ressources qui singularise la pauvreté transitoire. D'autre part, alors qu'en 2003, le retard des pluies a pu contribuer à réduire la production agricole, ce que pourrait suggérer le coefficient relatif au trend, positif et significatif, l'absence de trend dans le modèle économétrique influence peu l'élasticité du ratio de pauvreté transitoire par rapport aux envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire. The decline of remittances of Côte d'Ivoire had a strong negative impact on transient poverty in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2003. It is the principal conclusion of the study, based on the data of the two last household surveys. Firstly, an approach in terms of levels shows that, all things being equal, a reduction of 10 percent of the remittances per capita of Côte d'Ivoire induces a rise of the rate of transient poverty of 1,89 percent. On the other hand, the reduction of remittances of Côte d'Ivoire did not significantly influenced durable poverty, whereas the ratio vulnerability/incidence of poverty increases with the latter. Secondly, an approach in terms of differences highlights, at the regional level, an opposite relation, statistically significant, between the growth rate of the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire and the growth rate of measurements of durable and transient poverty. Elasticities of the variation of poverty with respect to the variation of the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire, calculated to the average of the growth rates of the expenditure and the index of Gini, have the values of -0,090 and -0,123, respectively, for the ratios of durable and transient poverty. The validity of these results is reinforced by two elements of analysis. On the one hand, the increase in total poverty between 1998 and 2003 is primarily due to the progression of « evolutive transient poverty » –, characterizing households poor but slightly vulnerable. However, the reduction of the transfers in direction of the households represents a specific deficit of resources which characterizes transient poverty. In addition, whereas in 2003, the delay of the rains could contribute to reduce the agricultural production, which could suggest the coefficient relating to the trend, positive and significant, the absence of trend in the econometric model has little influence on the elasticity of the ratio of transient poverty with respect to the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire. (Full text in French)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 93.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:93

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