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Crise ivoirienne, envois de fonds et pauvreté au Burkina Faso

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Fondée sur les deux enquêtes auprès des ménages de 1998 et 2003, la recherche propose une analyse de la dynamique des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire, et de leur impact sur la pauvreté au Burkina Faso. Deux principales conclusions émergent de cette investigation, les envois de fonds étant considérés comme un transfert exogène de revenus. En premier lieu, l'étude montre à la fois une baisse significative et une nouvelle distribution relative des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire au cours de la période 1998-2003. Alors que plus de la moitié des ménages ayant des transferts bénéficiaient d'une redistribution en provenance de Côte d'Ivoire en 1998 – 21,1 pour cent –, ils n'étaient plus que 4,8 pour cent en 2003, soit le quart des familles recevant des envois de fonds. De ce fait, le volume des transferts de Côte d'Ivoire a chuté de 67,8 pour cent en termes réels entre 1998 et 2003, une évolution confirmée par les statistiques de la BCEAO concernant l' « épargne rapatriée » de ce pays. En même temps, parmi les ménages pauvres, la part relative des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire a chuté – 64,5 pour cent du volume des transferts privés en 1998, contre 46,7 pour cent en 2003 –, contrairement aux ménages aisés – 30 pour cent du haut de la distribution –, et la proportion des pauvres ayant des transferts de Côte d'Ivoire a été divisée par 7,8, contre seulement 2,6 pour les riches. De plus, ces changements s'accompagnent d'une double évolution au cours de la période : (i) une diminution du montant moyen des transferts reçus de Côte d'Ivoire par les pauvres – 6,7 à 5,1 milliers de F.Cfa par tête et par an ; (ii) une forte baisse des transferts ivoiriens par rapport aux dépenses par tête. Une modélisation logistique multinomiale des déterminants de la pauvreté confirme cette évolution. En deuxième lieu, l'étude suggère une relation significative entre le déclin des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire et la hausse de la pauvreté au cours de la période. Tout d'abord, l'estimation des effets potentiels des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire montre, qu'en l'absence de ces derniers, l'incidence de la pauvreté aurait été supérieure de 1,6 point de pourcentage en 1998, contre seulement 0,3 point de pourcentage en 2003, un différentiel d'impact potentiel statistiquement significatif uniquement dans le premier cas. Par conséquent, la « perte d'effet potentiel » de la réduction des envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire, en termes de diminution du ratio de pauvreté, est de 1,3 point de pourcentage. Ensuite, la mobilisation de l'économétrie spatiale produit plusieurs enseignements. Premièrement, lorsque l'on contrôle par l'année de l'enquête, le taux d'urbanisation et l'inégalité des dépenses par tête au niveau régional, les modèles auto-régressifs mixtes suggèrent des élasticités de -0,141, -0,177 et -0,206, respectivement, pour l'incidence, la profondeur et l'inégalité de la pauvreté par rapport aux transferts ivoiriens, et permettent de prédire, par exemple, une élévation du ratio de pauvreté des ménages de 9,6 pour cent au cours de la période – la variation observée de la pauvreté au cours de cette dernière étant de 8,7 pour cent. Deuxièmement, l'estimation de modèles à régimes « spatio-temporels » fait apparaître des élasticités de la pauvreté régionale par rapport aux transferts de Côte d'Ivoire plus élevées en 1998 qu'en 2003, bien que le test de Chow spatial relativise ce résultat. Troisièmement, une approche en termes de différences met en évidence une relation inverse au niveau régional, statistiquement significative, entre le taux de croissance des transferts de Côte d'Ivoire et le taux de croissance des mesures de la pauvreté. Les élasticités, calculées à la moyenne des taux de croissance des dépenses et de l'indice de Gini, ont les valeurs de -0,105, -0,126 et -0,137, respectivement, pour le ratio, la profondeur et l'inégalité de la pauvreté. Enfin, l'étude tente d'appréhender la relation entre les envois de fonds de Côte d'Ivoire et l'inégalité des ressources des ménages, et montre l'impact assez faible de cette dernière en termes de niveau et de variation. Based on the two household surveys of 1998 and 2003, the research proposes an analysis of the dynamics of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire, and their impact on poverty in Burkina Faso. Two principal conclusions result from this investigation, the remittances being regarded as an exogenous transfer of incomes. Firstly, the study shows a significant fall and a new relative distribution of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire during the period 1998-2003. Whereas more half of the households having transfers profited from a redistribution coming from Côte d'Ivoire in 1998 – 21,1 percent –, they were not any more but 4,8 percent in 2003, i.e. the quarter of the families receiving remittances. So, the volume of the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire fell of 67,8 percent in real terms between 1998 and 2003, an evolution confirmed by the statistics of the BCEAO concerning the « repatriated saving » of this country. At the same time, among the poor households, the relative share of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire fell – 64,5 percent of the volume of the private transfers in 1998, against 46,7 percent in 2003 –, contrary to the rich households – the top 30 percent of the distribution –, and the proportion of the poor having transfers of Côte d'Ivoire was divided by 7,8, against only 2,6 for the rich households. Moreover, these changes are accompanied by a double evolution during the period: (i) a reduction in the average amount of the received transfers of Côte d'Ivoire by the poor – 6,7 B 5,1 thousands of F.Cfa per capita and per annum; (ii) a strong fall of the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire compared to the expenditure per capita. A logistic multinomial modeling of the determinants of poverty confirms this evolution. Secondly, the study suggests a significant relation between the decline of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire and the rise of poverty during the period. First of all, the estimate of the potential effects of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire shows that, in the absence of the latter, the incidence of poverty would have been higher of 1,6 point of percentage in 1998, against only 0,3 point of percentage in 2003, a differential of potential impact only statistically significant in the first case. Consequently, the « loss of potential effect » of the reduction of the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire, in terms of decrease in the ratio of poverty, is of 1,3 point of percentage. Then, the mobilization of spatial économetrics produces several lessons. Firstly, when one controls by the year of the investigation, the rate of urbanization and the inequality of the expenditure per capita at the regional level, the spatial lag models suggest elasticities of -0,141, -0,177 and -0,206, respectively, for the incidence, the depth and the inequality of poverty with respect to remittances, and make it possible to predict, for example, a rise in the ratio of poverty of the households of 9,6 percent during the period – the variation observed of poverty during this last being of 8,7 percent. Secondly, the estimate of models of space-time regimes reveals elasticities of regional poverty with respect to the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire higher in 1998 than in 2003, although the spatial Chow test relativizes this result. Thirdly, an approach in terms of differences highlights a negative relation at the regional level, statistically significant, between the growth rate of the transfers of Côte d'Ivoire and the growth rate of poverty. The elasticities, calculated at the average of the growth rates of the expenditure and the index of Gini, have the values of -0,105, -0,126 and -0,137, respectively, for the ratio, the depth and the inequality of poverty. Lastly, the study tries to apprehend the relation between the remittances of Côte d'Ivoire and the inequality of the resources of the households, and shows the rather weak impact of the latter in terms of level and variation. (Full text in French)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 90.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:90

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2004. "Le travail des enfants et la pauvreté en Afrique : un réexamen appliqué au Burkina Faso," Documents de travail 96, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.

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