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Dynamiques et persistance de la pauvreté en Russie

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  • Matthieu Clément

    ()
    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

L’objectif de cet article est de décrire et expliquer les dynamiques de la pauvreté monétaire en Russie entre 1994 et 2000, à partir des enquêtes Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Dans un premier temps, l’utilisation des outils classiques de l’analyse des dynamiques de pauvreté – indices FGT, dominance stochastique, etc. – révèle que les évolutions de la pauvreté ont suivi les fluctuations macroéconomiques. L’incidence de la pauvreté atteint un maximum de 27,5 % en 1998, quelques mois après la crise financière. Dans un second temps, le recours aux données de panel permet, selon trois approches différentes, d’évaluer l’importance relative de la pauvreté chronique et de la pauvreté transitoire. Les résultats montrent qu’en Russie, la pauvreté est essentiellement un phénomène transitoire. Enfin, l’étude économétrique des déterminants des formes dynamiques de pauvreté, à partir de modèles Tobit, révèle que la pauvreté chronique s’explique par des facteurs structurels et plus particulièrement par les dotations en actifs des ménages, alors que les causes de la pauvreté transitoire sont avant tout conjoncturelles et étroitement liées à la situation sur le marché du travail. This article describes and explains the dynamics of poverty in Russia between 1994 and 2000. In the first place, the use of classical tools of poverty dynamics analysis – FGT indices, stochastic dominance, etc. – reveals that poverty evolutions are parallel to macroeconomic fluctuations. The poverty headcount index reaches a maximum of 27,5 % in 1998, just after the financial crisis. In the second place, the recourse to panel data helps to measure chronic and transitory poverty, according to three different methodologies. The results show that, in Russia, poverty is chiefly a short term phenomenon. Finally, the econometric study of chronic and transitory poverty determinants, with Tobit models, shows that long term poverty is mainly explained by structural factors such as households assets endowments, whereas transitory poverty is closely linked to shocks and labor market characteristics. (Full text in french)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 89.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision: Sep 2005
Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:89

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