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La dynamique de pauvreté provinciale et le marché du travail à Madagascar. Une analyse fondée sur une décomposition de régression

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  • Jean-Pierre Lachaud

    (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

L’étude considère que l’identification de la distribution et de la dynamique spatiale des activités et des opportunités économiques, en relation avec l’accès au marché du travail, est fondamentale pour la politique économique, et examine les déterminants de l’évolution de la pauvreté provinciale à Madagascar, au cours de la période 2001-2005. Premièrement, les équations du ratio de bien-être des ménages mettent en évidence le rôle du capital humain – malgré la baisse de sa rentabilité –, la contrainte plus sévère des facteurs démographiques dans les villes, et l’effet de la participation aux marchés du travail. A cet égard, dans les provinces rurales du Groupe et du sud-est/ouest, la croissance du taux d’emploi a été compensée par une dégradation du mode de participation au marché du travail, alors que l’inverse a prévalu dans le milieu rural du nord-ouest/est et nord – une situation aussi fonction du processus migratoire et des transferts. Dans les villes, les ajustements en termes d’offre de travail, de chômage et de qualité des emplois, surtout dans la province d’Antananarivo, ont contribué à réduire le niveau de vie des ménages. Deuxièmement, la décomposition des effets des dotations et des rendements des facteurs montre qu’en milieu rural, où les dépenses par tête ont augmenté de 6,8 pour cent, la variation des rendements du travail est le déterminant majeur de la contribution de l’emploi, l’accroissement des rendements des agriculteurs ayant joué un rôle de premier plan. Cette dynamique a permis de contrebalancer la baisse du rendement du capital humain du chef de ménage, l’effet de la démographie des ménages étant marginal. Toutefois, dans la province rurale d’Antananarivo, où le ratio de bien-être a décliné, la contribution négative de l’emploi et de l’instruction n’a pas été contrebalancée par l’effet positif de la démographie. Dans les villes, le déclin de -16,9 pour cent des dépenses par tête s’explique principalement par la contribution des dotations, bien que, pour les rendements, des compensations inter-composantes complexifient l’appréhension de leur rôle. Ainsi, dans toutes les provinces, les dotations relatives à l’instruction, ont non seulement baissé, mais aussi équivalent le plus souvent à la moitié des dotations totales. Quant à la variation négative des dotations liées à l’emploi – hormis à Toliara –, elle résulte d’une baisse de la proportion d’employés rémunérés par ménage, de l’élévation du sous-emploi, et de la dynamique défavorable de certains statuts du travail des membres des ménages, en particulier, le poids croissant du chômage à Antananarivo et à Mahajanga. Enfin, malgré le contraste provincial du rôle des rendements des facteurs, la contribution positive de l’emploi au ratio de bien-être dans les deux provinces du sud-est/ouest (Fianarantsoa et Toliara) et celles du nord-ouest (Mahajanga et Toamasina) est principalement annihilée par la baisse du rendement du capital humain. The study considers that the identification of the distribution and the spatial dynamics of the activities and economic opportunities, in relation to the access to the labour market, is fundamental for the economic policy, and examines the determinants of the evolution of the provincial poverty in Madagascar, during the period 2001-2005. Firstly, the equations of the household’s welfare ratio highlight the role of the human capital – in spite of the fall of its return –, the more intense constraint of the demographic factors in the cities, and the effect of the participation in the labour markets. In this respect, in the rural provinces of the Groupe and the south-east/west, the growth of the rate of employment was compensated by a growing vulnerability in the labour market, whereas the reverse prevailed in the rural areas of north-west/east and north – a situation also related to the migratory process and remittances. In the cities, the adjustments in terms of labour supply, underemployment and quality of jobs, especially in the province of Antananarivo, contributed to reduce the standard of living of the households. Secondly, the decomposition of the effects of the endowments and the returns of the factors shows that in rural areas, where the expenditure per capita increased by 6.8 percent, the variation of the labour returns is the major determinant of the contribution of employment, the increase of the farmers’ earnings having played a significant role. This dynamics resulted in counterbalancing the fall of the return of the human capital of the household head, the effect of the demography of the households being marginal. However, in the rural province of Antananarivo, where the welfare ratio declined, the negative contribution of employment and education was not counterbalanced by the positive effect of demography. In the cities, the decline of -16.9 percent of the expenditure per capita is explained mainly by the contribution of the endowments, although, for the returns, inter-components compensation’s complex the apprehension of their role. Thus, in all the provinces, the endowments relating to the instruction, not only dropped, but are also equivalent to half of the total endowments. As for the negative variation of the endowments related to employment – except in Toliara –, it results from a fall of the proportion of employees remunerated per household, the rise in underemployment, and the unfavorable dynamics of some labour statutes, in particular, the growing weight of unemployment in Antananarivo and Mahajanga. Lastly, in spite of the provincial contrast of the role of the returns of the factors, the positive contribution of employment to the welfare ratio in the two provinces of the south-east/west (Fianarantsoa and Toliara) and those of the north-west (Mahajanga and Toamasina) are mainly neutralized by the fall of the return of the human capital.(Full text in french)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 136.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:136

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