Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Building and Linking a Microsimulation Model to a CGE Model : the South African Microsimulation Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nicolas Hérault

    ()
    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

This paper describes the project of building a micro-macro model for South Africa. The aim is to deal with the links between globalisation and poverty or inequality, explaining the effects of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality. The main issue of interest is the effect of international trade on households (especially their income); some changes may contribute to reduce poverty while other changes could work against the poor. The approach presented in this paper relies on combining a macro-oriented CGE model and a microsimulation model. Combining these two models the microeconomic effects (on poverty and inequality) of a macroeconomic policy (trade liberalisation) can be analysed. The paper gives details about the microsimulation model and the "top-down" approach used to link the microsimulation model and the CGE model. In addition, the methodology discussed is applied to South African data and a selection of preliminary results using this approach are presented and discussed. The main concern regarding poor households is whether the decrease in real (or nominal) earnings for formal low-skilled and skilled workers is offset by the upward trend in formal employment levels. This appears to be the case implying a decrease in poverty due to trade liberalisation. Although whites emerge as the main winners, the increase in inter-group inequality is more than compensated by the decrease in intra-group inequality. Ce papier décrit le projet d’élaboration d’un modèle micro-macro pour l'Afrique du Sud. L’objectif est d’examiner les liens entre la mondialisation et la pauvreté ou l'inégalité, en expliquant les effets de la libéralisation commerciale sur ces deux indicateurs de progrès social. La préoccupation principale concerne l'effet du commerce international sur les ménages (particulièrement, leur revenu), certains changements pouvant contribuer à réduire la pauvreté, tandis que d'autres étant susceptibles d’aggraver les privations. L'approche présentée dans cet article est fondée sue la combinaison d’un modèle CGE orienté-macro et d’un modèle de micro-simulation. En combinant ces deux modèles, les effets micro-économiques (sur la pauvreté et l'inégalité) d'une politique macro-économique (libéralisation commerciale) peuvent être analysés. L’étude spécifie le modèle de micro-simulation et l'approche « top-down », employés pour relier les modèles de micro-simulation et CGE.En outre, la méthodologie discutée est appliquée aux données sud-africaines, et des résultats préliminaires, fondés sur cette approche, sont présentés et discutés. Un élément central de l’analyse concernant les ménages pauvres est d’examiner si la diminution des revenus réels (ou nominaux) des ouvriers qualifiés ou faiblement qualifiés du secteur formel est compensée par la tendance à la hausse de l’emploi formel. L’étude montre que cela semble être le cas, ce qui implique une diminution de la pauvreté due à la libéralisation commerciale. Bien que les bénéficiaires principaux soient les « blancs », l'augmentation de l'inégalité inter-groupes est plus que compensée par la diminution de l'inégalité intra-groupes. (Full text in english)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ged.u-bordeaux4.fr/ceddt114.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 114.

as in new window
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:114

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
  2. François Combarnous & Pascal Labazée, 2002. "Entreprises et emploi en Côte d'Ivoire," Série de recherche 05, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2007. "CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey," MPRA Paper 9307, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.