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The role of external and country specific factors in Hungarian inflation developments

Author

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  • Balázs Krusper

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

Recent literature suggests that the co-movement of inflation is rather strong across countries. We use a factor model to asses this co-movement within the EU, while we differentiate between common (EU) and regional (CEE) effects. We find that price dynamics in Western European countries share a common pattern, while CEE countries can be divided into subgroups according to their inflation history. Results indicate that the monetary policy regime is a very important source of the difference among CEE countries. This method also allows us to examine how external and country-specific components contributed to the Hungarian inflation. We find that Hungary, similar to other countries in the region, experienced a disinflation period before the EU accession. However, country specific components (e.g. VAT changes or monetary policy) also played an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Krusper, 2012. "The role of external and country specific factors in Hungarian inflation developments," MNB Working Papers 2012/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2012/5
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2012-05.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erzsébet Éva Nagy & Veronika Tengely, 2018. "The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 149-172, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Katalin Szilágyi & Dániel Baksa & Jaromir Benes & Ágnes Horváth & Csaba Köber & Gábor D. Soós, 2013. "The Hungarian Monetary Policy Model," MNB Working Papers 2013/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Paweł Gajewski, 2017. "Sources of Regional Inflation in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 261-276, May.
    4. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafranski, 2018. "What Common Factors are Driving Inflation in CEE Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 131-148.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation dynamics; factor model;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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