The role of external and country specific factors in Hungarian inflation developments
AbstractRecent literature suggests that the co-movement of inflation is rather strong across countries. We use a factor model to asses this co-movement within the EU, while we differentiate between common (EU) and regional (CEE) effects. We find that price dynamics in Western European countries share a common pattern, while CEE countries can be divided into subgroups according to their inflation history. Results indicate that the monetary policy regime is a very important source of the difference among CEE countries. This method also allows us to examine how external and country-specific components contributed to the Hungarian inflation. We find that Hungary, similar to other countries in the region, experienced a disinflation period before the EU accession. However, country specific components (e.g. VAT changes or monetary policy) also played an important role.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2012/5.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
inflation dynamics; factor model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-13 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-10-13 (Transition Economics)
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- Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2014. "What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?," EcoMod2014 6977, EcoMod.
- Katalin Szilágyi & Dániel Baksa & Jaromir Benes & Ágnes Horváth & Csaba Köber & Gábor D. Soós, 2013. "The Hungarian Monetary Policy Model," MNB Working Papers 2013/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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