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Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?

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  • Kornél Kisgergely

    ()
    (Ministry for National Economy (Hungary))

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    Abstract

    This paper empirically tests whether monetary policy can have a perverse effect on aggregate demand in emerging economies, because of short-term speculative inflows. For this purpose, a bayesian VAR is estimated on a panel of six major emerging countries. Monetary and risk shocks are identified by imposing only very mild restrictions. It is found that a positive interest rate shock results in a persistent decline in production and inflation. The net foreign asset position even improves in most of the countries. Thus no large net inflows are observed and there is no sign of a perverse effect on aggregate demand. More interestingly, central banks loosen interest rate policy significantly and persistently in the face of a capital inflow shock, possibly to dampen the immediate disinflationary effect of the appreciation and/or to protect balance sheets from exchange rate volatility. In some specifications this results in overheating (positive industrial production gap and inflation) in the medium-term. Thus central banks might amplify the effect of risk premium shocks by cutting interest rates–rather than raising them—when capital flows in.

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    File URL: http://english.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/ENMNB/Kiadvanyok/mnben_mnbfuzetek/WP_2012-03.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2012/3.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2012/3

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    Keywords: carry trade; monetary policy; emerging markets;

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    1. Xavier Gabaix & Samuel Fraiberg & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdehlha & Emmanuel Farhi, 2010. "Crash Risk in Currency Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, 02.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 12916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Luis A.V. Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 5, pages 105-144 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Oscar Jorda, . "Carry Trade," Working Papers 1018, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Hochradl, Markus & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, April.
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