Potential Output and Foreign Trade in Small Open Economies
AbstractIn open economies excess demand in the tradables sector often manfests itself in an external deficit instead of the employment gap that is applied in the usual Phillips-curve model. The inflationary pressure in this case arises from an expected or actual weakening of the exchange rate and its pass-through into prices. This phenomenon gave the idea to define an output as sustainable ('potential') if it does not rely on a permanent increase of external indebtedness. Both domestic and foreign demand shocks generate deviations of actual aoutput from the potential. Potential output for Hungary, Mexico, and Poland was estimated using the Kalman-filter.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2000/9.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
economic integration; I(2)- ness; Kalman-filter; output gap; transition economies.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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