IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mmf/mmfc06/132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the choice of interest rate data matter for the results of tests of the expectations hypothesis - some results for the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Mose Nielsen

    (Department of Economics, Politics and Public Administration, Aalborg University)

Abstract

Using UK data for the period 1997:3 to 2005:5, this paper examines whether the expectations hypothesis is supported by recent UK data when the short-end of the term structure of interest rates is considered and whether the results of the tests of the expectations hypothesis are sensitive to the choice of data. The main results can be nicely summarized by considering five virtual researchers who test the expectations hypothesis using five different data sets for the 1997:3 to 2005:5 period for the 1 to 12-month maturity spectrum and who get quite different results. The main conclusion to be drawn from the analysis in this paper is thus that robustness check may be very important when testing the expectations hypothesis using the 1 to 12-month maturity spectrum of the term structure. Furthermore, the results suggest that the specific data set used in tests of the expectations hypothesis may be a candidate explanation of a rejection of the expectations hypothesis - along with the possibility that a time-varying term premium and/or a structural break are responsible for the rejection

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Mose Nielsen, 2007. "Does the choice of interest rate data matter for the results of tests of the expectations hypothesis - some results for the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 132, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.18453.1145733695.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 1752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
    4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    6. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1995. " The Predictive Power of Yield Spreads for Future Interest Rates: Evidence from the Danish Term Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 145-159, March.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    8. Kugler, Peter, 2002. "The term premium, time varying interest rate volatility and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 311-316, August.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    10. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Fall), pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    3. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    4. Boero, Gianna & Torricelli, Costanza, 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: some comparative evidence," Economic Research Papers 268794, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    6. G. Boero & C. Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    7. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45.
    8. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & M. Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 3437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    12. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    13. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
    14. Giovanna Paladino & Gianluca Salsecci, 1999. "Spread corrigé des risques et dynamique du taux d'intérêt à long terme : une application aux marchés allemand, américain et italien," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 45-62.
    15. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
    16. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 495-508, August.
    17. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June.
    18. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates across frequencies," Working Paper Series 976, European Central Bank.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Marc Tomljanovich, 2007. "Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross‐Country Econometric Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 791-813, January.
    21. Tzavalis, Elias, 2004. "The term premium and the puzzles of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-93, January.
    22. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.