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Computing the Distributions of Economic Models Via Simulation

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John Stachurski

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Abstract

This paper studies the convergence properties of a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing distributions of state variables when the underlying model is a Markov chain with absolutely continuous transition probabilities. We show that the L1 error of the estimator always converges to zero with probability one. In addition, rates of convergence are established for L1 and integral mean squared errors. The algorithm is shown to have many applications in economics.

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/SITE/research/workingpapers/wp05/949.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 949.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:949

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  1. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 8909, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques-.
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  2. A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johnson, Paul A., 2005. "A continuous state space approach to "Convergence by Parts"," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 317-321, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Nishimura, Kazuo & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Stability of stochastic optimal growth models: a new approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 100-118, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 541-557. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
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  8. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2006. "Establishment size dynamics in the aggregate economy," Staff Report 382, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Exact Mean Integrated Squared Error Of Higher Order Kernel Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1031-1057, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. Nishimura, Kazuo & Rudnicki, Ryszard & Stachurski, John, 2006. "Stochastic optimal growth with nonconvexities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 74-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. António Antunes & Tiago Cavalcanti & Anne Villamil, 2006. "Computing General Equilibrium Models with Occupational Choice and Financial Frictions," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0611, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
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