Testing For Asymmetry In Interest Rate Volatility In The Presence Of A Neglected Level Effect

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Testing For Asymmetry In Interest Rate Volatility In The Presence Of A Neglected Level Effect

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O.T. Henry
S. Suardi

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Abstract

Empirical evidence documents a level effect in the volatility of short term rates of interest. That is, volatility is positively correlated with the level of the short term interest rate. Using Monte-Carlo simulations this paper examines the performance of the commonly used Engle-Ng (1993) tests which differentiate the effect of good and bad news on the predictability of future short rate volatility. Our results show that the tests exhibit serious size distortions and loss of power in the face of a neglected level effect.

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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 945.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:945

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-03-18 (All new papers)
NEP-CFN-2006-03-18 (Corporate Finance)
NEP-ECM-2006-03-18 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2006-03-18 (Econometric Time Series)
NEP-FIN-2006-03-18 (Finance)
NEP-MAC-2006-03-18 (Macroeconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T, 2002. " The Impact of News on Measures of Undiversifiable Risk: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 487-507, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T., 2000. "The Impact of News on Measures of Undiversifiable Risk: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 733, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T., 2000. "Can portmanteau nonlinearity tests serve as general mis-specification tests?: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 245-251, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T., 1999. "Can Portemanteau Nonlinearity Tests Serve as General Mis-Specification Tests? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 723, The University of Melbourne.
Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Henry, Olan, 1998. "Modelling the Asymmetry of Stock Market Volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 145-53, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Henry, O.T.J., 1995. "Modelling the Assymetry of Stock Market Volatility," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 487, The University of Melbourne.

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, . "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0206, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Sandy Suardi, 2005. "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 941, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]

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