Computable Bounds for Extreme Event Probabilities in Stochastic Economic Models
AbstractThe paper introduces a multiplicative drift condition for evaluating stochastic economic models. The drift condition is shown to permit computation of quantitative bounds for extreme event probabilities in terms of the model primitives. By way of illustration, the technique is applied to a simple threshold autoregression model of exchange rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 927.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-04-08 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
- Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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