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Do Stock Market Returns Predict Changes to Output? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Data Model

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Author Info
Ólan T. Henry
Nilss Olekalns
Jonathan Thong

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Abstract

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.

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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 868.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:868

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Related research
Keywords: Panel data; current depth of recession; stock returns;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  3. Mullins, Mark & Wadhwani, Sushil B., 1989. "The effect of the stock market on investment: a comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 939-956, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Why does the paper-bill spread predict real economic activity?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  10. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 157-216. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Investment Options and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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