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Bayesian Model Averaging in Consumer Demand Systems with Inequality Constraints

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Author Info
Chua, C.L.
Griffiths, W.E.
O'Donnell, C.J.

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Abstract

Share equations for the translog and almost ideal demand systems are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. A common prior on the elasticities and budget shares evaluated at average prices and income is used for both models. It includes equality restrictions (homogeneity, adding up and symmetry) and inequality restrictions (monotonicity and concavity). Posterior densities on the elasticities and shares are obtained; the problem of choosing between the results from the two alternative functional forms is resolved by using Bayesian model averaging. The application is to USDA data for beef, pork and poultry. Estimation of elasticities and shares, evaluated at mean prices and expenditure, is insensitive to model choice. At points away from the means the estimates are sensitive, and model averaging has an impact.

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/SITE/research/workingpapers/wp00_01/806.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 806.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:806

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Related research
Keywords: conditional prior; Marginal likelihood; Metropolis-Hastings algorithm;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Griffiths, William E & Chotikapanich, Duangkamon, 1997. "Bayesian Methodology for Imposing Inequality Constraints on a Linear Expenditure System with Demographic Factors," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(69), pages 321-41, December.
  2. Danilov, D.L. & Magnus, J.R., 2001. "On the harm that pretesting does," Discussion Paper 37, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ryan, David L & Wales, Terence J, 1998. "A Simple Method for Imposing Local Curvature in Some Flexible Consumer-Demand Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 331-38, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Chalfant, James A. & Gray, Richard S., 1989. "Evaluating prior beliefs in a demand system : the case of Meats demand in Canada," CUDARE Working Paper Series 483, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  5. Stephen Gordon, 1996. "Using Mixtures of Flexible Functional Forms to Estimate Factor Demand Elasticities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 717-36, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Frank Kleibergen, 1997. "Equality Restricted Random Variables: Densities and Sampling Algorithms," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-005/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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  8. Moschini, Giancarlo, 1999. "Imposing Local Curvature Conditions in Flexible Demand Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 487-90, October.
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  1. Wolff, Hendrik & Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ron C., 2004. "Imposing Monotonicity And Curvature On Flexible Functional Forms," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20256, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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