Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia
AbstractThis paper makes new projections of government social outlays for Australia. The calculations suggest that government social outlays will increase considerably as a percent of GDP over the next 50 years, by 7.3 percent of GDP in the base case. This is a greater increase than that found by previous investigators. Over 60 percent of this increase will occur between 2011 and 2031, the years when the baby boom generation retires. The major contribution to this increase will have come from increased government outlays on social security. Lower rates of net immigration are shown to yield an even larger increase in the percentage of government social outlays in GDP. The paper also considers the disincentive effect of taxation and the effect of increasing the age of retirement. However, notwithstanding the trends suggested by the projections, the paper argues that there are a number of reasons to be sanguine about the implications of ageing on the share of government outlays in GDP.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 689.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5289
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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SOCIAL WELFARE ; PUBLIC POLICY ; AGED;
Other versions of this item:
- Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2000. "Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 33(1), pages 49-64.
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
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- O'Brien, Martin, 2004. "Hidden Unemployment and Older Male Workers," Economics Working Papers wp04-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
- John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
- Ross S. Ross S. & Ian M. McDonald, 2002. "Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(1), pages 29-44.
- Guest, Ross & McDonald, Ian, 2002. "Superannuation, Population Ageing and Living Standards in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 19-33, March.
- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
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