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State & Territory Beveridge Curvesand the National Equilibrium Unemployment Rate

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Author Info
Robert Dixon
John Freebairn
Emayenesh Seyoum-Tegegn

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Abstract

Shifts in the ‘national’ equilibrium rate of unemployment relevant for determining national economic policy settings, we contend, are those shifts which are ‘common across states & territories’. One way to identify these is to identify the common shifts in state and territory Beveridge curves in Australia over time. When we do this we recover a national equilibrium unemployment rate series which is similar to, but at the same time different enough from, other measures to make it interesting. In our view it is this, or some other “national” equilibrium rate series, a series which ‘by construction’ will capture national (nation-wide) factors based on common shocks or common trends across states and territories, that should be the basis for policy and not an ‘aggregate series’ which does not do this. We estimate the value of the equilibrium unemployment rate for 2006 to be 3.7%, which may be compared with the actual unemployment rate for that year of 4.8%, indicating that even as recently as 2006 the actual rate was at least 1 percentage point above the equilibrium rate

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/SITE/research/workingpapers/wp08/1033.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1033.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1033

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate Beveridge curve Australia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-98, December.
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Crosby & Nilss Olekalns, 1998. "Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(2), pages 117-129. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Long-Run Shifts of the Beveridge Curve and the Frictional Unemployment Rate in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 65-82, March.
  5. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2006. "Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Borsch-Supan, Axel H, 1991. "Panel Data Analysis of the Beveridge Curve: Is There a Macroeconomic Relation between the Rate of Unemployment and the Vacancy Rate?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(231), pages 279-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Samson, Lucie, 1994. "The Beveridge Curve and Regional Disparities in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 937-47, October.
  9. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2002. "The Relationship Between Regional and National Unemployment," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 469-480, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment-Vacancy Relationship in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(4), pages 43-57. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hansen, Bent, 1970. "Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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