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Naïve, Resolute or Sophisticated? A Study of Dynamic Decision Making

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Author Info
John D Hey () (LUISS, Italy and University of York UK)
Gianna Lotito () (Università del Piemonte Orientale, Alessandria, Italy)

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Abstract

Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses: to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both behaviour and preferences) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are resolute, a substantial proportion are naïve and very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by MIUR Project on Dynamic Decision Making in its series MIUR Dynamic Decision Making Project Working Papers with number 1_07.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:miu:wpaper:1_07

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Related research
Keywords: dynamic decision making; naivety; sophistication; resoluteness; dynamic inconsistencies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter Moffatt & Simon Peters, 2001. "Testing for the Presence of a Tremble in Economic Experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 221-228, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cubitt, Robin P & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and the Common Ratio Effect: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1362-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John D. Hey & Massimo Paradiso, 2006. "Preferences Over Temporal Frames In Dynamic Decision Problems: An Experimental Investigation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(2), pages 123-137, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John D. Hey & Jinkwon Lee, 2005. "Do subjects remember the past?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 9-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-57, July.
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  7. John Hey, 2005. "Why We Should Not Be Silent About Noise," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 325-345, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  10. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hammond, Peter J, 1976. "Changing Tastes and Coherent Dynamic Choice," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 159-73, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and NonExpected Utility," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 87-119, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hammond, Peter J, 1977. "Dynamic Restrictions on Metastatic Choice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(176), pages 337-50, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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