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Identifying Challenges for Sustained Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Infrastructure

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Author Info
Struben, Jeroen J.R.,
Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic, behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure to explore the co-evolutionary dynamics between infrastructure supply and vehicle demand. Vehicles and fueling infrastructure are complementarities and their chicken-egg dynamics are fundamental to the emergence of a self-sustaining alternative fuel vehicle market, but they are not well understood. The paper explores in-depth the dynamics resulting from local demand-supply interactions with strategically locating fuel-station entrants. The dynamics of vehicle and fuel infrastructure are examined under heterogeneous socio-economic/demographic conditions. The research reveals the formation of urban adoption clusters as an important mechanism for early market formation. However, while locally speeding diffusion, these same micro-mechanisms can obstruct the emergence of a large, self-sustaining market. Other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics, such as endogenous topping-off behavior, are discussed. This model can be applied to develop targeted entrance strategies for alternative fuels in transportation. The roles of other powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, R&D, learning by doing, driver experience, and word of mouth are discussed.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/37306
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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 37306.

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Date of creation: 27 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:37306

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Postal: MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT), SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MASSACHUSETTS 02142 USA
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Postal: MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT), SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MASSACHUSETTS 02142 USA

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Related research
Keywords: diffusion; transitions; co-evolution; industry dynamics; transportation; fueling infrastructure; alternative fuels; complementarities; spatial models; system dynamics;

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  1. Kenneth A. Small & Clifford Winston & Jia Yan, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1367-1382, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Train, Kenneth, 2000. "Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 315-338, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Small, K.A. & Gomez-Ibanez, J.A., 1996. "Urban Transportation," Papers 95-96-4, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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  6. Kenneth E. Train & Clifford Winston, 2007. "Vehicle Choice Behavior And The Declining Market Share Of U.S. Automakers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1469-1496, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Flynn, Peter C., 2002. "Commercializing an alternate vehicle fuel: lessons learned from natural gas for vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 613-619, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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