Spot and future prices of agricultural commodities: fundamentals and speculation
AbstractThis paper investigates the long-run relationship between spot and futures prices for corn and soybeans, for the period January 2004 -September 2010. We apply cointegration methodology in the presence of potentially unknown structural breaks in the commodities prices and we then study the causality relationships between spot and futures prices within each specific sub-period identified, with the aim to analyze where changes in spot and futures price originate and how they spread. Empirical estimates highlight the following evidence: i) breaks relate to events that have significantly affected the supply and demand of corn and soybeans for food and energy purposes; ii) sub-periods consequently identified express different dynamics in the causal relationship between spot and futures prices and support the idea that many factors contributed to the 2007-2008 food price increase.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-03.
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Commodity; futures markets; price discovery; cointegration; structural breaks;
Other versions of this item:
- Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Spot and Futures Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Fundamentals and Speculation," 2011 International European Forum, February 14-18, 2011, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 122002, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
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