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An empirical analysis of UK imports: is there evidence of hysteresis?

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Author Info
Emilia Penkova
Abstract

The paper re-examines the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis by applying it to the UK import volume from the world's five largest economies: Germany, France, Italy, Japan and the USA, over the period 1975 to 1994. Disaggregated bilateral data (4- digit ISIC) are used and hysteresis is captured by dummy variable which is an extension of work by Parsley and Wei (1993). Panel estimation is undertaken and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique is employed. There is evidence that hysteresis appears important for UK imports and varies across industries and countries.

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Paper provided by University of Dortmund, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 05_01.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mik:wpaper:05_01

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  1. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dixit, Avinash, 1994. "Hysteresis and the duration of the J-curve," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 105-115, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ljungqvist, Lars, 1994. "Hysteresis in international trade: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-399, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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